I beat Karl Rove

Well, you're all sick of hearing me talk about the election for the last 2 1/2 years (I promise, this is the end) and although pretty much nothing has gone the way I hoped it would over that time period (I am, as you know, a Mitt Man), I did wake up this morning to a pleasant surprise--I BEAT KARL ROVE. The only thing I look forward to more than filling out my March Madness bracket is filling out my November Madness electoral map. But after spending (according to Steph) "all" of my time since early 2006 analyzing, this time I had results that were better than usual. I narrowly beat (at least that's what it looks like so far) Karl Rove, who almost everyone agrees knows more (for better or for worse) about electoral maps than pretty much anyone alive. I had Missouri dead even over most of the last few weeks but ultimately put it as breaking for McCain, which it seems to have (up by just 6k as of 10:14 a.m.), based primarily on trend. I had Indiana and N.C. for Obama, which were considered by some of my friends to be upset picks based on the adjusted polls (the real polls that the media never report) that account for demographics, bias, historical track record, sample size, trend and a bunch of other factors besides just a straight phone poll. But for a variety of reasons that you've all heard me analyze, I picked Obama in both and was right by a razor-thin margin (at least so far--up in Indiana by 23k and N.C. by 12k as of 10:15 a.m.). I had McCain carrying AZ easily based on name recognition, even though I know how disliked he is by the base there and many non-adjusted polls predicted Obama could pick that one off. I also correctly called all of the Bush '04 states that Obama would pick up, including Nevada, New Mexico (which I thought would be closer than it was), Colorado, Iowa (where Obama had already won and McCain had already lost in the primaries), and of course Ohio, Virginia, and Florida which, on paper, many thought McCain should have won based on demographics (age, veterans, etc.) and endorsements, but which for a number of reasons that you're all sick of hearing me talk about I had him losing big. I had the general election at 53% to 46%, assuming a high turnout, and so far it's 52% to 46%. Sorry to brag, but I'm just so excited to do what nobody (including Gore or Kerry) has done in the past--beat "The Architect." Now you won't have to listen to me talk about the election anymore, at least until Mitt starts campaigning in Iowa next week. :)